Lessons to learn from 2011’s ‘Contagion’

A few takeaways that could be useful from a personal science not-so-fiction favourite

When Dr. Ally Hextall (played by Jennifer Ehle) quips about how “somewhere in the world, the wrong pig met up with the wrong bat”, a muted chuckle is the best she could’ve hoped to elicit from a group of movie-goers in 2011. Substitute the pig for a pangolin, and you now have her describing the defining event of the year, if not the decade.

At the time of writing (7:48 am PST, 29/03/20), the current number of confirmed active cases of the novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) has crossed 684,000, with the United States leading, followed closely by Italy and China. Most major countries have instituted some form of forced social isolation, ranging from Canada’s new stance on criminalizing the violation of social distancing to my home of India, which is currently entering a three week lockdown that will see all non-essential services come to a halt. On March 11th, Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the Director — General of the WHO, declared the outbreak of COVID-19 as, officially, a pandemic.

Of course, this is certainly not cinema’s first pandemic, with countless thrillers having been made. Brad Pitt’s ridiculously overdramatic World War Z (2013), Morgan Freeman’s Outbreak (1995), and Naomie Harris’ 28 Days Later (2002), just to name a few. None, however, work very much to line their stories with realism. That is, of course, with the glaring exception of
Steven Soderbergh’s 2011 masterpiece Contagion.

In Contagion, a fictional virus (titled MEV-1), is responsible for a massive global pandemic that kills over 20 million people in the span of a few months. The virus begins when Beth Emhoff (played by Gwenyth Paltrow), becomes the index patient after contracting it as a result of a mutation that had passed via a bat and a pig. What separates Contagion from most of its counterparts is its dedication to maintaining a basic standard of realism. It luxuriates in a blur between reality and fiction, begging viewers to ask their neighbours “Is this based on a true story?”. MEV-1, although fictional, is carefully crafted to be as realistic as possible. From its theoretically possible origins from the very real Nipah virus, to its fairly standard creation via a pig and a bat, not much seems to be out of scope for a real version. In fact, as we will discuss, MEV-1 has, initially, the same R-Nought value as COVID-19.

Along with MEV-1, the characters that anchor the plot are also held to the aforementioned standard of realism. Take, for example, this dialogue by Dr. Erin Mears (played by Kate Winslet), where she’s explaining the very real concept of R-Nought to uninformed officials.

“For every person who gets sick, how many other people are they likely to infect?
So for seasonal flu, that’s usually about one.
Smallpox, on the other hand, it’s over three.
Now, before we had a vaccine, polio spread at a rate between four and six.
Now, we call that number, the R-nought.”

Herein lies the first lesson to be learnt.

Right as Kate Winslet’s character finishes her explanation and discusses the need to understand the vulnerable demographic of the population, an official butts in and sarcastically remarks about how that consists of “everyone with hands, a mouth, and a nose”. Her statement, while fleeting, speaks volumes about the general relationship between the government and qualified medical professionals. In the movie, the official is concerned about the new disease affecting “the biggest shopping weekend of the year”. This is similar to the President Trump’s remarks about wishing to relax social distancing guidelines, which is a clear slap across the face of medical professionals who have repeatedly emphasized the need to take precautionary actions for the foreseeable future. In an interview with Fox News, he mentioned about how Christians will be able to pack into churches, despite the fact that this defiance of social distancing norms by a church is precisely why South Korea saw such a massive spike in cases.

As a believer of the Word of God, I’m not blind to the obvious reality that social gatherings of any sort in this climate is reckless. And to anyone claiming faith in the Lord as a reason to continue gathering, remember this:

“It is said: ‘Do not put the Lord your God to the test.’”

Luke 4:12

Lesson 1: Medical professionals don’t set out with the intention to actively disrupt the lives of people. Their job is to minimize it.

About an hour into the movie, it becomes clear that MEV-1 is nothing short of a disaster. While talking to Rear Admiral Lyle Haggerty, however, it is made clear that information was to be withheld until its obvious. In his words, “we just need to make sure that nobody knows, until everybody knows”. He talks about how people would make panic-fuelled runs to grocery stores, banks, and gas stations, among other places.

This is where we see encounter our second lesson.

Here, officials have two choices. Either be completely transparent and risk the collapse of essential services in the face of mass panic, or actively withhold crucial information in the name of maintaining societal stability. Within ten minutes of this dialogue, grocery stores have been vandalized and pharmacies have been violently raided for Forsythia (which we will come to later). While not nearly at that scale, the strains being put on basic services is now more visible. In most stores, products like hand sanitizers and Lysol wipes are usually out of stock, with many hoarding them before reselling at vast markups. As a result, those who need it find themselves with nothing. At my local Save-On Foods, paper towels and toilet paper have now been limited to only one set per customer. In worse hit countries like the United States and Italy, the list of unavailable products is larger, with eggs, bread, bleach, and distilled water (used for baby formula) all now being in limited supply. Videos of customers running across Costco to grab the latest supplies, while meme-worthy, is a small indicator of the fragility of society’s calm.

For a pandemic, like for a celebrity, perception is reality. A pathogen doesn't have to be deadly to spark panic, it only has to seem deadly. All it takes is a handful of fearful individuals to stock up and, one by one, out of fear of supplies running out, more people will hoard, ironically creating a self-fulfilling positive feedback loop. The fear of supplies running out will elicit actions that indeed do cause supplies to run out. The excessive purchase of masks, which are only significantly beneficial if you are symptomatic, has already left many medical workers struggling.

Lesson 2: Stay calm, purchase normally, and allow resources to be allotted to individuals who need it. Do not panic!

Of course, the deadliest pandemic in Contagion is not of MEV-1, but rather, that of misinformation about it.

In the movie, even before a vaccine is created, there is a widespread theory that Forsythia, a fictional homoeopathic treatment, is a viable solution to MEV-1. This is despite the lack of concrete evidence and with no endorsement from any reputed institution. The rumour is fuelled even further when blogger/conspiracy theorist Alan Krumwiede (played by Jude Law), posts videos showcasing him allegedly having recovered from MEV-1 simply by consuming Forsythia. Law describes him best, calling him the index patient of a parallel epidemic of fear and panic. If there is any aspect of Contagion that mirrors reality, it’s the way misinformation reaches millions.

It’s only been two weeks since COVID-19 was declared a pandemic, and there’s already enough misinformation to warrant 10 pages of debunking on Snopes, which, by the way, is a fantastic place to fact-check claims. From hilarious oddballs like the idea that holding one’s breath was a good way to test for the virus, to ones with serious implications like that about health experts having predicted a death toll of 65 million, misinformation is a serious problem.

In the movie, Krumwiede goes one step further and establishes himself as a source that wields the same, if not a higher standard of credibility than the CDC. The mistrust of the government shown in Contagion is one that many might find relatable today. The COVID-19 pandemic comes right after a year filled with revolution, protests, and political upheaval. This is best summed by a statement made by UN Secretary-General António Guterres,

“It is clear that there is a growing deficit of trust between people and political establishments, and rising threats to the social contract”.

From the widespread allegations of fraud in India’s election to the protests of Hong Kong, the world entered the 2020s with a strained relationship between governments and the people. Given this, not only are people less receptive to information from an institution perceived to be deceitful and secretive, but they are also more likely to believe news that supports this idea. That’s not to say the scepticism is without merit.

As a citizen, I understand the mistrust of the government. However, I will not use that to justify blindly trusting statements put out by questionable sources. At the very least, I would look to organizations run by experts in the field like the WHO. Once again, it’s in their best interest to cure the pandemic as soon as possible. The economic damages are already monumental enough, and actively working to deceive the public isn’t going to help a political party’s case for reelection.

As individuals, while we can’t fix the government instantly, we can avoid spreading false information. Fact-checking websites like Snopes and Politifact work round the clock to ensure that false information is labelled clearly as fake/wrong. Additionally, reliable news sources like Reuters are also a good place to get information.

Lesson 3: Avoid propagating and believing information that could be detrimental if proven to be false. Always fact-check information and let others know if they are spreading incorrect data.

With its eerily similar plot to the COVID-19 pandemic and top-notch scientific realism, Contagion has regained renewed popularity in the midst of this chaos. However, for me, Conatgion’s realism is most impactful in the way it shows the perseverance of the human spirit in the face of a powerful, albeit microscopic, adversary.

Mitch Emhoff (played by Matt Damon) fighting for a woman whose meal was being stolen. His daughter Jory being unable to meet her crush physically and resorting to texting in the face of social distancing. Dr. Ally Hextall injecting the untested vaccine into herself to speed up the testing process. In Contagion, no struggle is too insignificant to be ignored. No victory is not worth celebrating. Even with their lives having been upturned, they still held on to their core principles. That is why this movie has had renewed popularity in recent weeks. Its characters, once seen as caricatures of a fictional, escapist narrative, had seemingly transformed overnight into the people who view them. Mitch Emhoff is you, and you, and you. They’ve become relatable in a way that no other disease-disaster movie can aspire to achieve. Mitch Emhoff is not multi-millionaire Matt Damon, and is no more different than your neighbour or friend. Dr. Erin Mears is not Academy Award winner Kate Winslet, but is instead one of many fighting the pandemic at the battlefront. Those characters have broken through the screen and have become part of our fight too.

Given the current situation, we could use fighters of all kinds, even fictitious ones.

“Take a bow Ally. People have for a lot less”